![]() But he’s also an incumbent president - and as long as the country is not in a recession, fighting an unpopular war or in the midst of a global pandemic, incumbents usually win reelection. One can assume that those supporting Newsom, Whitmer and Harris would all think their candidate is most likely to defeat Trump. Linker argues for choosing the candidate who “seems best positioned to beat Trump” as if such an answer is easily discernible. That would leave Democrats anointing a presidential candidate in August - weeks before early voting begins in many states - who is untested, unvetted, and unknown by most of the country. The boldest pundits will suggest that Harris drop out too, even though she absolutely wouldn’t. While they may not realize it, those suggesting that Biden should step down are asking Democrats to go into November with an unpopular, less-tested vice president, whose 2020 campaign didn’t even make it to a single caucus or primary. Indeed, in every poll that’s matched both Biden and Harris against Trump, Harris has performed worse. Why would any Democrat risk alienating the most dependable voting bloc in the Democratic Party: black women - and not just in 2024 but also in 2028 when Biden can’t run? It would be near impossible to raise the money, hire the staff, and build the campaign infrastructure necessary to defeat an incumbent vice president who would already have a huge head start.įurthermore, if an ambitious Democratic politician like Gavin Newsom and Gretchen Whitmer does launch a presidential bid, victory would mean stepping over the country’s first female Black vice president. ![]() Once he entered the race, Humphrey was practically guaranteed to win the party nod, as he had the support of Democratic party bosses.Ĭalls for an open primary in 2024 ignore the fact that it’s incredibly unlikely that any Democrat other than Harris would take the plunge. But there are several major differences between now and more than fifty years ago: a) Johnson was kind of a jerk, b) there was already a competitive primary race underway, and c) that election took place before primaries chose a party nominee. When Lyndon Johnson chose not to seek reelection in 1968, he didn’t endorse his Vice President, Hubert Humphrey. And in what scenario would it be a good look for Democrats to take the focus off Trump and his multiple criminal indictments by wasting hundreds of millions of dollars on a presidential primary that might not even produce a nominee until late August? But considering that the filing deadlines in 44 states have already passed, anyone who enters the primary now would have to do so almost entirely on a write-in basis. Put aside the obvious and unimaginable disloyalty to his running mate, if Biden took this step, it could invite a competitive primary fight and encourage other Democrats to get into the race. There are so many problems with these arguments it’s hard to know where to begin.įirst, the chances of Biden dropping out of the race and not endorsing his vice president, Kamala Harris, are somewhere between nada and zilch. Dean Phillips, campaigned relentlessly, Biden won easily. Even in New Hampshire, the one state where he didn’t officially compete and where his closest thing to a credible challenger, Rep. Based on the early primary results in which Biden won 89% of the vote in Nevada and 96% in South Carolina, we can safely assume that won’t happen this year. The only way to get rid of an incumbent president is via a primary challenge. Yes, party elites can still influence the outcome, but when people say, “Democrats should do this” or “Democrats should do that,” they are describing a world that no longer exists. ![]() Since then, the choice for presidential nominee has been up to voters. The tumultuous 1968 election led to reforms creating the open primary nominating system we know today. A century ago, in the proverbial smoke-filled rooms at national conventions, party bosses could push an unpopular incumbent by the wayside. But what party elites definitely don’t have is the power to oust an incumbent president if he doesn’t want to be ousted. elected officials, donors, WH staffers, labor and interest group leaders, and influential media members, have a lot of power.” And he quite clearly does not want to do that, nor do Democratic voters seem eager to push him out.Īccording to Silver, “academic studies of modern political parties” show that “party elites, which include e.g. The problem is there simply is no way to jettison Biden unless he wants to step down. It's true that Biden has lousy approval numbers and polls overwhelmingly indicate that the president’s age is a matter of serious concern to voters.
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